鲍威尔：好意思联储能更快或更慢降息，特朗普不行解任我，将来或恰当减速降息
11月7日周四，好意思联储按期降息25个基点，下调联邦基金利率标的区间至4.5%-4.75%，但决议声明删除对于“在抗通胀问题上得到信心”的表述，或示意对12月暂停降息抓绽放作风。
好意思东当地时候下昼2点半，好意思联储主席鲍威尔出席记者会，讴歌好意思国经济举座领会远大，承认劳能源阛阓抓续降和缓“有一份通胀数据比料念念要高”，也明确表态好意思联储还会持续降息。
阛阓聚焦他会否就将来利率旅途表露出更多有内容意旨的脚迹、是否点评好意思国大选对于好意思国经济出息的影响，以及特朗普潜在的减税、关税和开销酌量对好意思联储后续计谋与监管轨制的影响。
开场白：工作阛阓不是显耀的通胀压力起首，若通胀降温停滞且经济强，不错更慢降息在杀青准备好的开场稿件中，鲍威尔称，供应条件的改善守旧了好意思国经济在昔日一年领会远大，好意思联储在杀青充分工作和建壮物价双重标的方面取得了紧要进展。经济和劳能源阛阓依旧谨慎。
他指出，新增工作速率照实较本年早些时候放缓，昔日三个月平均每月新增工作10.4万东说念主，但可能受到10月份歇工和飓风的临时牵累。休闲率昭着高于一年前，但在昔日三个月有所下跌：
“总体而言，一系列平凡的方针标明，劳能源阛阓的殷切情状比2019年疫情爆发前有所缓解。劳能源阛阓并不是显耀的通胀压力起首。”
在评价通胀时，他称，“昔日两年通胀率大幅下跌”，9月PCE价钱指数同比增2.1%，更接近2%的央行弥远标的，但中枢PCE同比高涨2.7%“仍然略高”，不外弥远通胀预期似乎仍保抓建壮。
他格外强调，好意思联储在“逐渐转向愈加中性的态度”时莫得预设旅途，将逐次会议依照数据、不休变化的出息与风险均衡作出“动态有蓄意”，因为降息过快可能遮拦通胀降温，降息过慢又可能过度削弱经济行径和工作：
“若是经济保抓远大，而通胀率莫得抓续向2%迈进，咱们不错更牢固地减少计谋约束（注：更慢降息）。若是劳能源阛阓有时走弱，大要通胀率下跌速率快于预期，咱们不错更快地禁受行径。”
鲍威尔：特朗普不行令我解任大要降职，短期内大选对货币计谋没影响，不搁置减速降息在问答法子，媒体当先聚焦鲍威尔能否在特朗普第二个总统任期内“告成届满退休”。
被问了太屡次的鲍威尔反复声明我方不念念恢复太多政事话题，但斩钉截铁地称，就算特朗普要求他辞去好意思联储主席一职，他也不会从命，而且法律不允许好意思国总统解任大要降职好意思联储高档官员。
当日稍早据报说念，特朗普可能会让鲍威尔持续素质好意思联储，直至2026年5月任期收尾，特朗普担任总统时候曾宽泛错误好意思联储和鲍威尔，称其安靖货币计谋的速率不够快，遮拦好意思国经济茂密。特朗普10月还称，好意思国总统应该有权参与利率有蓄意，并有权对利率应该上调或下调发表评述。
鲍威尔也明确提到，短期内好意思国大选不会对货币计谋产生影响，好意思联储也不会“意象、揣度、或假定财政计谋额外可能对经济的影响”。
他称今天降息后“计谋仍具有约束性”，再连合他提到“对抗通胀的抗拒还莫得收尾”，以及好意思联储处在愈加接近中性利率的正轨上，不错推知他在指示“好意思联储仍会持续降息”。
不外，好意思联储在计谋声明中翻开了很快将暂停降息的可能性，鲍威尔也称，无需为了保抓物价建壮这个职责而让通胀进一步降温，“跟着咱们接近中性利率，可能减速降息节律是恰当的。”
他也再次重申，“好意思联储并莫得仓卒匆中忙地要杀青中性利率”，并发出告诫称，在好意思联储寻求裁汰利率之际，政府的任何变动齐可能影响货币计谋：
“原则上，任何好意思国政府的计谋或国会制定的计谋，齐可能跟着时候推移产生经济影响，因此，连同无数其他要素一说念，这些经济影响的预测将被纳入好意思联储的经济模子中，并被酌量在内。”
在特朗普胜选后，阛阓照旧下调了对来岁1月的降息预期，更主流的不雅点是合计届时暂停降息，这一概率从一周前的44%升至54%，对12月再降息25个基点的概率则从77%小幅降至67%。
有分析指出，特朗普胜选激发了东说念主们对好意思联储可能以更慢、更平缓设施降息的意象，因为约束违规侨民和本质新关税的计谋可能会推高通胀。同期，这也会激发东说念主们盘考好意思联储眼中既不约束也不刺激经济增长的“中性利率”到底是几许。
还说了什么：12月会议前会有更多数据，仍能软着陆，好意思国赤字和财政计谋是经济阻力鲍威尔在问答法子还提到，工作阛阓尚未全面杀青建壮，好意思国劳能源阛阓持续降温，炒汇但设施“至极牢固”。商界合计，2025年的经济地方将好于本年，但地缘政事风险偏高。薪资增速仍然稍稍高于与2%通胀标的相一致的水平：“咱们仍在野着更中性的态度迈进，关节在于正确的设施。”
在谈到通胀时，他承认“有一份通胀数据略高于预期”，但并不行令其顾虑经济：
“总体而言，咱们对经济行径感到乐不雅。与此同期，咱们得到了一份通胀敷陈，诚然不是很厄运，但照实比预期高了少许。
关联词到12月，咱们将得到更多数据，比如还会有一份工作敷陈、两份通胀敷陈和广博其他数据，咱们将在12月的会议上作念出决定。”
他还重申，好意思联储依旧肯定会杀青“软着陆”，“肯定咱们不错在杀青远大工作的同期完成抗击高通胀的任务”，而且好意思国东说念主的弥远通胀预期仍锚定细致。
在谈到10年期好意思债收益率自9月好意思联储大幅降息以来飙升超70个基点时，鲍威尔合计好意思债收益率走高主要受经济增长启动，而不是货币计谋启动：
“目下判断好意思国国债收益率的走势还言之过早，似乎债券走势并非由通胀高于预期主导，经济行径数据一直齐比预期的更远大。”
同期，好意思债收益率走高也不可幸免与特朗普政府将来大举发债、导致财政赤字愈发庞杂的预期相干，鲍威尔直言好意思国赤字不休上升和举座财政计谋仍是经济的阻力，联邦债务畛域不可抓续：
“咱们的债务水平相对于经济而言并非永诀适，而是这条旅途不可抓续。在赤字庞杂的情况下，目下处于充分工作状态，况兼瞻望这种情况将持续下去，因此管制（财政赤字）这个问题很迫切，这最终是对经济的恐吓。”
鲍威尔杀青准备好的记者会开场白稿件原文如下：下昼好。我和我的共事们仍然专注于杀青咱们的双重职责标的，即充分工作和建壮物价，以造福好意思国东说念主民。经济总体远大，昔日两年在杀青咱们的标的方面取得了紧要进展。劳能源阛阓已从之前的过热状态降温并保抓谨慎。截止9月份，通货延迟率已从7%的峰值大幅下跌至2.1%。咱们努力于通过支抓充分工作和将通货延迟率收复到2%的标的来保抓经济的远大。
Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. The economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years. The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state and remains solid. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7 percent to 2.1 percent as of September. We are committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.
今天，联邦公开阛阓委员会决定禁受进一步措施，裁汰计谋拘谨进度，将计牟利率下调25个基点。咱们仍然肯定，唯一恰当治疗咱们的计谋态度，经济和劳能源阛阓的远大势头就能保抓下去，通胀率将抓续下跌至2%。咱们还决定持续减少证券抓有量。在简要回来经济发展情况后，我拼集货币计谋发表更多办法。
Today， the FOMC decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by 1/4 percentage point. We continue to be confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance， strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained， with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
最近的方针骄横，经济行径持续稳步增长。第三季度国内分娩总值年增长率为2.8%，与第二季度苟简换取。虚耗开销增长保抓韧性，缔造和无形钞票投资增强。比较之下，房地产行业的行径一直疲软。总体而言，供应条件的改善守旧了好意思国经济在昔日一年的远大领会。
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter， about the same pace as in the second quarter. Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient， and investment in equipment and intangibles has strengthened. In contrast， activity in the housing sector has been weak. Overall， improving supply conditions have supported the strong performance of the U.S. economy over the past year.
劳能源阛阓情状依然谨慎。工作岗亭增长速率较本年早些时候有所放缓，昔日三个月平均每月新增10.4万个。若是不是因为10月份歇工和飓风对工作的影响，这一数字可能会更高一些。对于飓风，请允许我向扫数受到这些烧毁性风暴影响的家庭、企业和社区表露慰问。休闲率昭着高于一年前，但在昔日三个月有所下跌，10月仍保抓在4.1%的低位。格式工资增长在昔日一年有所放缓，绽放岗亭数目与求员工东说念主之间的差距有所缩小。总体而言，一系列平凡的方针标明，劳能源阛阓的殷切情状比2019年疫情爆发前有所缓解。劳能源阛阓并不是紧要通胀压力的起首。
In the labor market， conditions remain solid. Payroll job gains have slowed from earlier in the year， averaging 104 thousand per month over the past three months. This figure would have been somewhat higher were it not for the effects of labor strikes and hurricanes on employment in October. Regarding the hurricanes， let me extend our sympathies to all the families， businesses， and communities who have been harmed by these devastating storms. The unemployment rate is notably higher than it was a year ago， but has edged down over the past three months and remains low at 4.1 percent in October. Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year， and the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed. Overall， a broad set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019. The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures.
昔日两年，通货延迟率大幅下跌。截止9月份的12个月内，PCE总价钱高涨了2.1%；撤离波动较大的食物和能源类别，中枢PCE价钱高涨了2.7%。总体而言，通货延迟率已更接近咱们2% 的弥远标的，但中枢通货延迟率仍然略高。从对家庭、企业和预测者的平凡探听以及金融阛阓的方针来看，弥远通胀预期似乎仍保抓建壮。
Inflation has eased significantly over the past two years. Total PCE prices rose 2.1 percent over the 12 months ending in September; excluding the volatile food and energy categories， core PCE prices rose 2.7 percent. Overall， inflation has moved much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal， but core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored， as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households， businesses， and forecasters， as well as measures from financial markets.
咱们的货币计谋行径以促进好意思国东说念主民充分工作和物价建壮为双重职责。咱们合计杀青工作和通胀标的的风险苟简均衡，咱们和蔼咱们两方面职责各自靠近的风险。
Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance， and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our mandate.
在今天的会议上，委员会决定将联邦基金利率标的区间下调25个基点，至4.5%到4.75%的区间。进一顺次整咱们的计谋态度将有助于保抓经济和劳能源阛阓的远大，并将持续推进通胀进一步下跌，也令咱们将逐渐转向愈加中性的态度。
At today’s meeting the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point， to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. This further recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we move toward a more neutral stance over time.
咱们知说念，过快减少计谋拘谨可能会遮拦通胀（降温）的进展。同期，过慢减少计谋拘谨可能会过度削弱经济行径和工作。在酌量对子邦基金利率标的区间进行突出治疗时，委员会将仔细评估行将公布的数据、不休变化的出息和风险均衡。咱们莫得任何预设的蹊径，将持续逐次会议作念出决定。
We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time， reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate， the Committee will carefully assess incoming data， the evolving outlook， and the balance of risks. We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.
跟着经济的发展，货币计谋将进行治疗，以最佳地促进咱们杀青充分工作和价钱建壮标的。若是经济保抓远大，而通胀率莫得抓续向2%迈进，咱们不错更牢固地减少计谋约束。若是劳能源阛阓有时走弱，大要通胀率下跌速率快于预期，咱们不错更快地禁受行径。计谋照旧准备好粗鄙咱们在追求双重职责时靠近的风险和不笃定性。
As the economy evolves， monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals. If the economy remains strong and inflation is not sustainably moving toward 2 percent， we can dial back policy restraint more slowly. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated， we can move more quickly. Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.
好意思联储被赋予了两个货币计谋标的——最大约束工作和建壮物价。咱们仍然努力于支抓最大约束工作，将通胀率抓续降至2%的标的，并保抓弥远通胀预期建壮。咱们能否告成杀青这些标的对扫数好意思国东说念主来说齐至关迫切。咱们领悟，咱们的行径会影响到全好意思各地的社区、家庭和企业。咱们所作念的一切齐是为了履行咱们的内行职责。好意思联储将养精蓄锐杀青最大约束工作和物价建壮的标的。谢谢，期待盘考。
The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy—maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment， bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 percent goal， and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities， families， and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to our discussion.
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